Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 62.093122 69.475100 77.936198 88.483659 101.473089 117.217393 138.187722
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 51.637310 60.834155 72.329321 88.205155 110.369011 141.646518 192.273518
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 44.174964 53.547462 65.853010 83.928178 111.285980 154.246611 235.374182
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 41.696681 51.996559 66.212274 88.502677 125.440455 191.462236 345.387626
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 38.384475 48.754094 63.545580 87.800041 130.705075 215.505060 453.753574
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 35.359563 45.520563 60.372916 85.570949 132.507439 233.445275 571.713018
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 32.382866 42.052162 56.412367 81.332261 129.415647 239.252196 662.576432
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 31.859390 42.117269 57.863062 86.532142 146.318604 303.713782 1199.796361
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 31.429946 42.255906 59.407928 92.157282 166.205473 395.635380 2826.233616
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 30.300990 41.194412 58.822327 93.596693 176.924389 470.496148 7171.291820
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 28.926288 39.630558 57.210562 92.705991 181.474569 527.730397 24108.085658
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 27.422794 37.757063 54.891846 90.016745 180.398882 559.206615 166305.739851
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 26.050580 36.078095 52.893385 87.996358 181.532699 611.687319 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 24.996273 34.863636 51.639556 87.454738 187.197445 707.446377 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 23.546795 32.908071 48.886196 83.219379 180.082293 705.403030 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 23.342850 33.018400 49.928595 87.731156 203.470933 1027.203588 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 22.522504 32.028659 48.819546 87.038079 208.671981 1212.041511 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 21.595436 30.806340 47.177061 84.839205 207.540670 1322.346813 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 20.510135 29.263710 44.827517 80.656746 197.555706 1266.221931 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 20.513350 29.605725 46.147301 85.787420 227.496802 2260.512109 NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 20.520726 29.952207 47.506822 91.334969 264.359536 5297.873898 NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 20.128491 29.560651 47.337928 92.754078 282.858423 10787.119850 NaN
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 19.559477 28.821280 46.397654 91.875960 288.707830 18746.582576 NaN